Poly-and monosituational riskmetric models of environmental security

Abstract

The purpose of the paper is to formulate models of integral risk in environmental security. The main tasks to be solved are: 1) Formulation of a new structure of integral risks; 2) Creation of an universal situational risk models. To solve the first problem a new architecture of integral risk is constructed. Based on this sample it is composed a universal polisituational graph of the risk genesis. Unlike the other existing graph-patterns this model presents the risk as a function of the time. This is done by considering the temporal development of components and by fixing the duration of the emissions, immissions and contacts. The matter of polisituational model is formulated by introducing sets of components. The relationships between initiation phenomenon-impacts are recreated. The model simulates the occurrence and evolution of dangerous phenomena. When you are citing the document, use the following link http://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/31081