Теоретико-методологічні засади розвитку еколого-економічних систем в умовах флуктуацій

Abstract

Дисертацію присвячено обґрунтуванню та розробленню теоретико-методологічних і науково-методичних засад для забезпечення екологічно сталого (сестейнового) розвитку еколого-економічних систем та підвищення економічної безпеки до флуктуацій кліматично-ресурсного і еколого-економічного походження. У дисертації запропоновано й обґрунтовано концептуальні засади формування критеріальної бази оцінки узгодженості розвитку еколого-економічних систем на основі принципів екологічної сестейновості, в яких флуктуації забруднення навколишнього природного середовища повинні бути нееластичними та некогерентними відносно флуктуацій відповідного економічного розвитку. Розроблено структурно-векторну авторегресійу модель сестейнового розвитку еколого-економічної системи, в основу якої покладено взаємозв’язок таких параметрів як доходи, здоров’я населення та забруднення довкілля, з метою виявлення впливу економічних, екологічних та соціальних флуктуацій на розвиток даної еколого-економічної системи. Реалізація цих пропозицій дозволяє стимулювати довгостроковий економічний розвиток та екологічнодружні напрями господарювання, не порушуючи баланс екологічної стійкості.

Диссертация посвящена обоснованию и разработке теоретико-методологических и научно-методических основ для обеспечения экологически устойчивого (сестейнового) развития эколого-экономических систем и повышения экономической безопасности к флуктуациям климатически-ресурсного и эколого-экономического происхождения. В диссертации предложены и обоснованы концептуальные основы формирования критериальной базы оценки согласованности развития эколого-экономических систем на основе принципов экологической сестейновости, в которых флуктуации загрязнения окружающей природной среды должны быть неэластичными и некогерентными относительно флуктуаций соответствующего экономического развития. Разработано структурно-векторную авторегресионную модель сестейнового развития эколого-экономической системы, в основу которой положено взаимосвязь таких параметров как доходы, здоровья населения и загрязнение окружающей среды с целью выявления влияния экономических, экологических и социальных флуктуаций на развитие данной эколого-экономической системы. Реализация этих предложений позволяет стимулировать долгосрочное экономическое развитие и экологически дружественные направления хозяйствования, ненаружная баланс экологической устойчивости.

The dissertation is devoted to development of theoretical and methodological principles for ensuring ecologically sustainable development of ecological and economic systems for increasing economic safety to fluctuations of different origin (climate, resource, environmental, economic). It is theoretically proved the hypothesis of the sustainable regional development, basing on accounting the processes of interregional economic and social fluctuations synchronization. The last allows the possibility of environmental fluctuations synchronization absence within the permissible coherence interval that does not disturb the balance of socio-economic relations at the regional level. This approach guarantees the diversity of structural forms of intraregional development and can be used in the absence of interregional ecological and economic fluctuations coherence. It is found that among the main factors determining the difference of air emissions fluctuations within the national economy at the regional level the deep specialization of the regions is predominant. The last, on the one hand, promotes more effective distribution of productive forces and stimulates the growth of products competitiveness and on the other hand, specialized economic systems are more vulnerable to external shocks, which reduce the adaptive potential of their development. The conceptual foundations for the assessment of the coherence of ecological and economic systems development are proposed to estimate basing on the principles of ecological sustainability within which the fluctuations of the environmental pollution should be inelastic and incoherent in relation to fluctuations of economic development. The implementation of these proposals will stimulate long-term economic development and stimulate environmentally friendly economic activities without disturbing the balance of environmental sustainability. It is found that fluctuations in the growth of energy prices are important factor environmental degradation activities mitigation, basing on: reducing output and reducing the use of harmful resources in the short-run; due to the reserves existence of inter-resource substitution and energy efficiency growth. Emissions of harmful substances should also be reduced with rising prices for energy resources. The deliberate promoting of predicted and justified fluctuations in the prices of energy resources is an important factor of long-run national economy sustainable development. The scientific and methodological approaches concerning the amplitude magnitude determination of interconnected fluctuations are defined on the basis of regression analysis and removal of time series fluctuations with bandpass filters. These approaches allow to justify the cyclical and countercyclical components in the series of ecological and economic dynamics. The development of structural-vector autoregressive model of ecological-economic system sustainable development is based on the interconnection of such parameters as population incomes, public health and environmental pollution. Structural vector autoregressive models for sustainable development are used to identify the impact of economic, environmental and social fluctuations, which allows us to determine the "impulse-reaction" function in which the unit fluctuation of an independent parameter is reflected on the other fluctuations. The concept of fluctuations duality in the development of ecological and economic systems within the limits of positive and negative feedback relationships is developed and theoretically grounded. Within the range of permissible corridor of the fluctuations amplitude, the ecological and economic system maintains its predetermined level of stability through protective and adaptive mechanisms of counteraction to negative external influences; at the same time behind the permissible corridor of fluctuations the ecological and economic system begins to change its level of homeostasis through transformation mechanisms of positive feedback. The scientific and methodological approaches to the assessment of industrial structural changes within the national economy (due to anthropogenic influence) are developed, which, unlike existing ones, are based on the consideration of the difference between amplitudes and phase displacements of ecological and economic fluctuations. It is found that for the most regions of Ukraine there is a stable relationship between fluctuations in the use of non-renewable resources and emissions fluctuations in the atmosphere. Also the costs of innovative activity promotion are with minimal effect increase the emission of air pollution. Theoretical principles and methodological approaches to estimate the permissible level of environmental pollution amplitude fluctuations are developed, which, unlike existing ones, are determined on the basis of environmental indicators and determined by the state of population health and results of its economic activity. The scientific and methodological approach to the definition of economic consequences of environmental pollution negative externalities in the part of environmentally caused population morbidity has been improved, which, in contrast to existing ones, takes into account the endogenous nature of the interrelations between health factors and incomes. The last allows assessing the economic losses from one-time fluctuations of pollution and their aggregate value. Air pollution is associated with an average of 10.3 % of all cases of cardiovascular disease; 11 % of the digestive system diseases, 16 % of cases of respiratory diseases; 30% and 10.5% of the incidence of lung cancer morbidity (men and women respectively). It is calculated the economic losses related to the environmentally caused population morbidity at 0.7–1.3 % of GDP. The last are minimal estimations because they are based on the four types of environmentally conditioned morbidity and do not take into account the pollution related mortality. The methodological approach to forecasting the sustainable development path of ecological and economic systems is proposed, which unlike the existing ones, takes into account the fluctuations in the components of these systems and is based on the use of Cobb-Douglas production function and linear budget constraints on productive resources (fixed capital, human and non-renewable energy resources). The last allows optimization of production factors structure to ensure minimum costs in the ecological and economic system. The structural and logical essence of ecological and economic fluctuations concept is extended, which refers to the cyclical changes in the parameters of the ecological-economic system relative to the trend values in the conditions of the external and internal environment instability, which determines the short-term state of the system and affects the long-term prospects for its development.