EU vector of Ukraine development: linking between macroeconomic stability and social progress

Abstract

The paper deals with analysis of the linking between level of social progress and macroeconomic stability as the basis for the foresight of the country’s development strategy. For that purpose, the authors analysed the main indicators which influenced on country’s level of macroeconomic stability. On the findings, we allocate the main social determinants which should be taken to account during the developing the country’s development strategy. In the paper, the authors tried to prove the hypothesis: the linking between levels of macroeconomics stability and social progress. Thus, the authors used the economics and mathematical approaches as follows: TOPSIS, σ and β-convergences, cross-sectional regression analysis, principle component analysis, least square method, moment method of Arellano-Bond. The focus of investigation was: five latest members of EU (Latvia, Lithuania, Croatia, Romania and Poland) and Ukraine. The dataset for analysing were taken from nine data bases: World Data Bank, United Nations, World Intellectual Property Organization, The Heritage Foundation, Freedom House and etc. On the statistical dataset the authors developed the massive of statistics information on 19 parameters which have been structural consolidated under three main sub-indexes: “Life, Health, Welfare”, “Science, Education, Cultural”, “Freedom, Equal, Safety”. On the obtained results of the convergence between social progress and macroeconomic stability, the authors developed the model which allowed described the character of the linking between macroeconomic stability and level of the social progress. Using the proposed model and findings (on EU experience) the authors allocated three based development strategies for Ukraine: quasi-integration growth, convergent diversification, progressive growth. The findings showed that for Ukraine the most applicable and attractive strategy is convergent diversification which will be allowed harmonizing the macroeconomic stability and level of social progress.