The impact of the pandemic lockdown on air pollution, health and economic growth: system dynamics analysis

Abstract

The aim of the paper is checking the hypothesis on the linking between consequences of pandemic lockdown and air pollution, public health, and economic growth. For prediction and modelling of the pandemic lockdown’s impact on the air pollution, health, and economic growth with the system dynamics analysis and software Vensim; for the analysis, the authors used the methods as follows: bibliometric analysis with Scopus Tools Analysis and software VOSviewer. The findings confirmed that the current rate of infected from growing disease was 11%. If quarantine continues the rate of infected from the growing disease will be 15%. If the quarantine cancels the rate of infected from the growing disease will be 5%, and the declining of GDP increment will be higher, than in scenario with quarantine. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that lockdown has the negative impact on the economic, social, and ecological growth of the country. At the same time, in the case, if the government cancel the quarantine, the declining of GDP increment will be higher, and the rate of infected from the growing disease will be the highest – 15%. In this case, the government should provide the quarantine regime and strengthen the control of the compliance.