Детінізація економіки України в контексті забезпечення макроекономічної стабільності

Abstract

Дисертаційна робота присвячена вирішенню наукової проблеми розвитку теоретико-методологічних засад детінізації економіки України в контексті забезпечення її макроекономічної стабільності. Обгрунтовано логіко-структурні зв’язки, що виникають у процесі детінізації національної економіки в контексті забезпечення макроекономічної стабільності, розвинуто методологію її оцінювання. Удосконалено методологічні засади оцінювання впливу інвестиційних операцій на рівень тінізації економіки, визначення допустимого з урахуванням макроекономічних таргетів обсягу інвестиційних операцій з ознаками фіктивності. Поглиблено методологічний інструментарій визначення взаємозв’язків між надходженнями від прямих і непрямих податків, ефективністю функціонування податкової системи, параметрами розвитку фінансового сектору, фінансовими діджитал-інноваціями та рівнями тінізації економіки і макроекономічної стабільності країни. Розроблено методологію обгрунтування детермінованості рівня макроекономічної стабільності країни від параметрів інвестиційного, податкового, інституціонального та соціального каналів детінізації економіки.

The dissertation is devoted to the solution of the scientific problem of development of theoretical and methodological bases of de-shadowing of Ukraine’s economy in the context of maintenance of its macroeconomic stability. It have been further developed logical-structural scheme of macroeconomic stability ensuring of the Ukrainian economy on the basis of de-shadowing of the economy, which in contrast to the existing ones is based on the results of structuring the existing research, reflects the interrelationships and interdependence of macroeconomic stability elements, parameters of their quantitative assessment identified on benchmarking analysis and threats of macroeconomic stability violations, is characterized by structural and functional connection of the directions of macroeconomic stability ensuring in terms of channels of de-shadowing. It is also further developed scientific and methodological basis for integrated assessment of the level of macroeconomic stability, which differs from existing approaches by the qualitative interpretation of indicators of imbalances in socio-economic and financial development of the country and their subsequent generalization using the Erlang formula. It is improved methodological basis for determining the allowable volume of invest-ment operations with signs of fictitiousness, which in contrast to the existing is based on current and retrospective targets of levels of de-shadowing of the economy and the macroeconomic stability of the country and implemented using game theory tools (Brown-Robin iteration method). This revealed discrepancies between the allowable and actual volumes of investment transactions with signs of fictitiousness in Ukraine, taking into account the trade-offs between the volume of shadow economic transactions and the level of country macroeconomic stability. It is improved methodological basis for substantiation of causal links between direct tax revenues and levels of shadow economy and macroeconomic stability, which differs from existing ones by considering of bilateral influence between the studied processes, as well as formalization of time lag of change of shadow economy and country macroeconomic stability in response to the growing tax burden on corporate income tax, personal income tax and social security contributions. It is developed a methodology for estimating the relationship between indirect taxes and levels of shadow economy and macroeconomic stability of the country, which takes into account the impact of both cyclical and random determinants, and justification of maximum lag of such an influence. It is improved methodology for studying the impact of the efficiency of the tax system at the level of shadow economy and country macroeconomic stability, which differs from the existing by comprehensive consideration of institutional, administrative and social performance of fiscal policy, and integrated into a single indicator based on the additive convolution and the Fishburne formula. It is developed methodological bases of substantiation of influence of parameters of financial sector development on shadow economy and macroeconomic stability that differs from existing by combination of regression and distributive-lag modelling on panel data. It is deepened methodological background of clarification the role of financial digital innovations (investment, insurance and banking) in the context of changing the scale of the shadow economy, which differs from the existing by integration of regression analysis on panel data and the Hausman test. It is developed methodology for studying the impact of the level of shadow economy on the social development, which considered based on the results of testing on cointegration and stationarity the impact of explicit and latent determinants of their development, allow to build response function of social development indicators on shadowing processes based on the autoregressive model with a distributed lag. It is improved methodological basis of the scenario modelling of the critically level of e-government services in the country, which in contrast to the existing ones is carried out by using the step-by-step exclusion method for a pessimistic scenario and combing regression for an optimistic scenario. It is developed a methodology for determining the nature and strength of explicit and implicit patterns of mutual influence between the channels of shadowing the economy (investment, tax, social, institutional) and the level of the macroeconomic stability, based on building a system of simulative equations using MIMIC-modelling tools.