Детермінанти підвищення інвестиційного потенціалу національної економіки

Abstract

Дисертаційна робота присвячена розвитку теоретичних засад виявлення тенденцій в еволюції теорії управління інвестиційним потенціалом національної економіки, поглибленню концептуальних основ реалізації державної політики забезпечення інвестиційного потенціалу національної економіки, обгрунтуванню механізмів та функцій стейкхолдерів, принципів та інструментів його підвищення, розвитком типологізації існуючих та розробленню нового підходу до оцінювання інтегрального індексу інвестиційного потенціалу національної економіки, удосконаленню методичного інструментарію оцінювання рівня каплингу його системоутворюючих детермінант, розвитку науково-методичного інструментарію оцінювання впливу інституціональної детермінанти на інвестиційний потенціал національної економіки, обгрунтування коінтеграції між рівнями інвестиційного потенціалу національної економіки та його інституціонально-поведінковими детермінантами.

The thesis devoted to developing scientific and methodological instruments for assessing the national economy's investment potential and its main determinants, substantiation of mechanisms for implementing public policy intended to increase it. Theoretical bases of the definition of scientific research tendencies concerning the management of the investment potential of the national economy were deepened on two criteria: the level of closeness of scientific research and the evolutionary-temporal dimension. It allowed classifying the areas of interdisciplinary research depending on the closeness of their relationship with the theory of research management on investment management and clarifying the stages of its development. For this purpose, it was generated a sample of 25,567 scientific publications (according to the database Scopus) devoted to research on investment management research on investment management for the period 1991–2020. It was found that clusters on the theory of management of the country's competitiveness, investment attractiveness, and climate have the highest interrelationships level. According to the analysis results in the evolutionary-temporal dimension, it was identified five most significant stages of development of the theory of investment potential of the national economy. Stage 1 – analysis of factors to ensure the competitiveness of the national economy as determinants of investment potential. Stage 2 – the study of the peculiarities of forming a favourable investment climate in the country and increasing its attractiveness to external stakeholders (2010-2012). Stage 3 – substantiation of the relationship between the levels of efficiency of natural resources and the national economy's investment potential (2012-2016). Stage 4 – assessing the impact of the national economy's energy efficiency on the level of its investment potential (2016-2018). Stage 5 – analysis of the development of the country's agro-industrial complex and information technologies as key determinants of increasing the investment potential of the national economy (since 2020). Thesis deepened the typology of approaches to assessing the investment potential of the national economy, which differs from the existing complex considering three criteria: the object of evaluation, the nature of changes in indicators and sources of their formation, describe their nature, advantages, disadvantages, and limitations in application. The system-structural approach is taken as a basis in the thesis, as it allows considering the levels of the country's ability to attract new and effectively use existing resources to avoid the subjective nature of evaluation. The methodological tools for integrated assessment of the national economy's investment potential have been improved, based on the results of the analysis of a system of factors that describe the country's ability to attract new and effectively use existing resources to increase the investment potential of the national economy. It was determined that the lowest value of its integral value was recorded in 2019 (0.345 points), while in 2018 - the highest (0.42 points), and the level of convergence of trends in its change, Ukraine has similar trends with Romania. It was substantiated that the introduction of effective management mechanisms to activate new reserves will increase the national economy's investment potential. Thesis deepened the typology of approaches to assessing the investment potential of the national economy, which differs from the existing complex considering three criteria: the object of evaluation, the nature of changes in indicators and sources of their formation, describe their nature, advantages, disadvantages and limitations in application. The system-structural approach is taken as a basis in the thesis, as it allows considering the levels of the country's ability to attract new and effectively use existing resources to avoid the subjective nature of evaluation. The methodological tools for assessing the level of capping of indicators of investment attractiveness of the national economy have been improved, which allowed determining the positive and negative trends of capping components of the national economy's investment potential and to justify their causes. The highest level of coupling among all indicators in Ukraine was in 2008, and its declining dynamics in the period from 2008 to 2019 was provoked by a decrease in the levels of coordination and the relationship between socio-economic and energy-resource, innovation-research and energy and resource components by 0.173 and 0.087, respectively. A toolkit for element-by-element assessment of the impact of government performance indicators on political and civil liberties, political stability of the government, freedom and qualifications of public authorities, public confidence in government actions, public perception of corruption, government's ability to implement policies and regulatory measures) has been developed. The results of the analysis showed that the likelihood of increasing the investment potential of the national economy (on average by 0.12 points) requires increasing levels of political and civil freedom by 1.05 points, public confidence in government – 1.73 points, the government's ability to implement policies and regulatory measures – 1.54 points, and control of corruption – 1.45. The thesis developed an approach to determining the cointegration between the levels of perception of the country's brand by its external stakeholders, the efficiency of public administration, and the national economy's investment potential, which in contrast to existing VEC models and the use of Pedroni and Kao tests. Empirical results for the period 2000-2019 for Ukraine and EU countries confirm the cointegration relationship between the levels of perception of the country's brand by its external stakeholders, the efficiency of public administration, and the national economy's investment potential. The fastest manifestation (with a lag of one year) in the context of increasing the national economy's investment potential are the determinants of government, while the effect of improving the perception of the country's brand by its external stakeholders occurs with a lag of 4 years. An increase of 1% in the level of perception of the country's brand by its external stakeholders leads to an increase in the national economy's level of investment potential by 12%.