Конвергенція освітніх та економічних трансформацій: безпекові виклики для національної економіки в умовах цифровізації

Abstract

У дисертації наведено теоретичне узагальнення й запропоновано нове вирішення науково-прикладного завдання розвитку науково-методичних засад дослідження конвергенції освітніх та економічних трансформацій у національній економіці під впливом цифровізації, обгрунтування безпекових викликів, які вони провокують. Удосконалено методичні засади інтегрального оцінювання економічних, освітніх та цифрових трансформацій; методичне підгрунтя визначення каталізаторів та інгібіторів впливу економічних, освітніх і цифрових трансформацій на резильєнтність місцевих громад; поглиблено методичне підгрунтя визначення рівнів економічної, соціальної й інформаційної безпеки національної економіки; розроблено методичні засади верифікації ключових каналів впливу конвергенції економічних та освітніх трансформацій на рівні економічної, соціальної та інформаційної безпеки; вдосконалено науково-методичні засади верифікації часових горизонтів впливу економічних та освітніх трансформацій на економічну, соціальну й інформаційну безпеку національної економіки; поглиблено методичні засади оцінювання конвергентних взаємозв’язків у ланцюзі "економіка – освіта – національна безпека – цифровізація"; вдосконалено методичний інструментарій моделювання впливу цифровізації суспільства та освіти на економічну, соціальну й інформаційну безпеку.

The dissertation provides a theoretical generalization and offers a new solution to the scientific and applied problem of developing scientific and methodological foundations for studying the convergence of educational and economic transformations in the national economy under the influence of digitalization, justification of security challenges they provoke. The proposed methodological approach to the formation of integrated indicators of economic, educational and digital transformations in the national economy differs from the existing system combination of bibliometric, comparative and benchmarking analysis for selection of partial indicators of transformations, two-stage procedure for determining their relevance (based on expert method and alpha K test). approaches to their reduction to a comparable form (calculation of their chain growth rates and elimination of negative values of indicators) and aggregation (geometric mean method). This revealed that during 2000–2020, digital transformations were the most intensive in European countries, and economic transformations were the least significant. Ukraine is characterized by medium intensity of economic transformations and high intensity of educational and digital ones. Methodological basis for the study of the regional context of economic, educational and digital transformations involves assessing the strength and direction of their impact on the resilience of local communities based on a set of one-factor panel regression mod-els and justifying their relevance by ranking by confidence. It is determined that ensuring the resilience of local communities in 11 European countries is mainly through: 1) the channel of higher education, as well as the growth of internal academic mobility and the share of the labor force with secondary education; 2) growth of foreign direct investment, newly created enterprises, value added of production, urbanization of the population and electricity produced from renewable sources; 3) growth of the network of mobile phone users and the share of exports of goods of the information and communication industry. The biggest inhibitors of local community resilience are external academic mobility and the share of primary and higher education. Economic, social and information security should be assessed by aggregating indicators that characterize the blocks of security calls, taking into account their priority. During 2005–2019, the level of Ukraine's economic security increased from low to sat-isfactory, which corresponds to the positions of other European countries studied, which were characterized by a satisfactory level throughout the period. During the same period, social security increased from low to satisfactory levels in Romania and from satisfac-tory to high levels in Slovakia, while in other countries the level of social security re-mained stable (in Ukraine – low, in the Czech Republic and Slovenia - high, in other countries – satisfactory). During 2005–2019, information security increased in all studied countries: in Ukraine, Romania and Slovakia – from a very low to a satisfactory level; in Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania and Slovenia – from very low to low; in Estonia, the Czech Republic, and Hungary, from low to satisfactory; in Poland – from low to high. Methodical bases of verification of key channels of influence of economic and educational transformations at the level of economic, social and information security of national economy are proposed, which systematically combine the method of main components and structural modeling. It is determined that economic and educational transformations are not relevant channels for increasing the economic security of the national economy. At the same time, due to the growth of economic and educational transformations by 1 %, the country's social security increases by 0.476 % and 0.403 %, respectively, and information security – by 1.081 % and 0.5 %, respectively. This indicates the greater importance of educational transformations in overcoming security challenges in the national economy. The proposed scientific and methodological principles of verification of time horizons of the impact of economic and educational transformations on the economic, social and information security of the national economy are based on the application of vector autoregressive model, Granger test and cluster analysis. The study of time horizons of the formation of links between economic and educational transformations and changes in national security allowed us to identify three groups of countries that have similar trends in the studied effects. By calculating the levels of β- and σ-convergence of inte-grated indicators of the characteristics of single, pair, triple and complex links in the chain "economy – education – national security – digitalization" empirically confirmed the existence of convergent relationships in the dynamics of national security 11 European countries, as well as the convergence of national security in the context of digitalization of education. The achieved significant level of convergence of the economy, education and digitalization of the studied countries has been revealed, as well as stable convergent links of integrated development of their economy, education and national security have been formed. Distributive-lag modeling confirms that in the long run the growth of the level of digitalization of society (in terms of frequency of Internet use and its use for shopping and interaction with public authorities) is a catalyst to overcome security challenges in the national economy for its three components. At the same time, the growth of digitalization of education in terms of employment of specialists with different levels of education in ICT is a driver of economic, social and information security, and in terms of training for digital skills – a catalyst for information and social security inhibitor. The growing share of the population engaged in financial transactions on the Internet increases the economic, social and information security of the country by 1 % by 0.001, 0.002, 0.003, respectively, and increasing the share of the population with a high level of digital skills has a significant impact only on economic security.