Modeling the dynamic patterns of banking and non-banking financial intermediaries’ performance

Abstract

Nowadays, there are many preconditions and circumstances for conducting shadow schemes in the financial market. Therefore, the level of risk of participation of bank and non-bank financial intermediaries in such schemes is assessed as high. The lack of a practical methodology for assessing the development trajectory of financial intermediaries raises the question of the need for preventive control and quality modeling of their growth dynamics. The study aims to identify and formalize the patterns of development paths of banking and non-banking financial intermediaries based on the Harrington desirability function, which will be used to identify risk patterns as indicative patterns of financial intermediaries’ participation in shadow schemes. The sample includes 13 banking institutions, 3 credit unions, 3 pawnshops, 3 insurance companies, and 3 financial companies. The obtained results showed the relationship between the financial intermediary risk level in terms of its participation in shadow schemes and the phases of the economic cycle as a catalyst for the economic dynamics of the formal and informal economy. Thus, in 2012–2015, most financial intermediaries were in the zone of most significant risk, especially banks, characterized by economic, social, and political instability. Today, banks are in the group with a controlled level of risk of participation in scheme operations. Over the years analyzed, a stable neutral level of risk of participation in shadow schemes was inherent in most non-bank financial institutions. They were less sensitive than banks to the phases of the economic cycle.