The impact of indicators of macroeconomic stability on the destructive manifestation of Covid-19 in Ukraine

Abstract

This article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments in the framework of the scientific discussion on the problem of identifying, using the Granger test, the components of macroeconomic stability of Ukraine most sensitive to the destructive impact of Covid-19. The study’s primary goal is to select from among many macroeconomic indicators precisely those that cause epidemiological surges in morbidity and mortality of the population using the example of the Covid-19 pandemic. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to solving the problem of finding determinants that affect the course of the pandemic shows many views among the scientists of the world. Still, they do not establish a single opinion. The study of the topic of identifying the influence of indicators of macroeconomic stability on the destructive impact of the pandemic in work is carried out in the following logical sequence: 1) systematization of literary sources according to the topic of the study; 2) creation of a statistical database that meets the requirements of the chosen methods; 3) bringing the obtained time series to a comparative form and achieving their stationarity; 4) conducting a two-sided test to identify causality. The methodological tools of the research methods were the Dickey-Fuller test for detecting a unit root and stationarity of a series, ways to achieve stationarity of a series using different methods, and a two-sided Granger test for detecting the causality of indicators. The object of the study is Ukraine; the term of the study is the beginning of the pandemic from February 2020 to December 2021. The article presents the results of an empirical analysis of the identification of the components of macroeconomic stability of Ukraine most sensitive to the destructive impact of Covid-19, which showed that such indicators exist and the causal relationship exists in both directions. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that the most influential factors are the consumer price index and inflation, which cause the variability of the number of infected and deaths in Ukraine. The study results can help create regional and national patterns of resistance to the destructive impact of the pandemic on macroeconomic stability.