Торгівля фармацевтичною продукцією в європейському регіоні: зміни тенденцій під впливом пандемії COVID-19

Abstract

У статті досліджені тенденції експортно-імпортних відносин щодо торгівлі фармацевтичною продукцією України, Польщі та Молдови у 2006 - 2021 рр. з прогнозуванням індексу внутрішньогалузевої торгівлі в роки постпандемічного відновлення. У ході розрахунків авторами доводиться гіпотеза щодо того, що спалах пандемії COVID-19 має істотний вплив на сферу виробництва та міжнародної торгівлі фармацевтичною продукцією в країнах європейського регіону. Певним чином аналіз експортно-імпортних операцій у цій сфері дає можливість зробити висновки щодо того, чи була економіка країн спроможною в роки пандемії протистояти викликам, спричиненим ризиками громадському здоров’ю. За прогнозами авторів для України можливе посилення загального обсягу внутрішньогалузевої торгівлі як пропорції від загального обсягу торгівлі до 24% у 2026 р. Тоді як для Польщі та Молдови можливі спади, але з поступовим відновленням у тій же п’ятирічній перспективі.

The pharmaceutical industry played a unique role during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was critically important for the prevention and treatment of the disease. It is worth noting that during the global pandemic, trade-in medical goods increased. At the same time, pharmaceutical products accounted for more than half of the world trade in the structure of medical products. From the point of view, comparing the development of the pharmaceutical industry with others and determining the trends of changes in times of crisis in the health care system of the study is relevant. It is noteworthy that the analysis of export-import operations in the field of pharmaceutical production has not been given much attention in scientific research, while this field remains a critically important link in countering the negative consequences of the pandemic and is the parameter that determines the capacity of the national health care system cope with the onslaught of public health risks. The article examines the trends of export-import relations regarding trade in pharmaceutical products of Ukraine, Poland, and Moldova in 2006-2021 with forecasting of the index of intra-industry trade in the years of post-pandemic recovery. In the course of calculations, the authors prove the hypothesis that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on the sphere of production and international trade of pharmaceutical products in the countries of the European region. To a certain extent, the analysis of export-import transactions in this area makes it possible to conclude whether the economies of countries were able to withstand the challenges caused by public health risks during the pandemic years. According to the authors' forecasts, the total volume of intra-industry trade as a proportion of the total volume of trade may increase to 24% in 2026 for Ukraine, while recessions are possible for Poland and Moldova, but with a gradual recovery in the same five-year perspective. The actual value of the Fisher test was calculated, which makes it possible to conclude the adequacy of the constructed models to confirm the quality of the built forecast models.

The pharmaceutical industry played a unique role during the COVID-19 pandemic, which was critically important for the prevention and treatment of the disease. It is worth noting that during the global pandemic, trade-in medical goods increased. At the same time, pharmaceutical products accounted for more than half of the world trade in the structure of medical products. From the point of view, comparing the development of the pharmaceutical industry with others and determining the trends of changes in times of crisis in the health care system of the study is relevant. It is noteworthy that the analysis of export-import operations in the field of pharmaceutical production has not been given much attention in scientific research, while this field remains a critically important link in countering the negative consequences of the pandemic and is the parameter that determines the capacity of the national health care system cope with the onslaught of public health risks. The article examines the trends of export-import relations regarding trade in pharmaceutical products of Ukraine, Poland, and Moldova in 2006-2021 with forecasting of the index of intra-industry trade in the years of post-pandemic recovery. In the course of calculations, the authors prove the hypothesis that the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has a significant impact on the sphere of production and international trade of pharmaceutical products in the countries of the European region. To a certain extent, the analysis of export-import transactions in this area makes it possible to conclude whether the economies of countries were able to withstand the challenges caused by public health risks during the pandemic years. According to the authors' forecasts, the total volume of intra-industry trade as a proportion of the total volume of trade may increase to 24% in 2026 for Ukraine, while recessions are possible for Poland and Moldova, but with a gradual recovery in the same five-year perspective. The actual value of the Fisher test was calculated, which makes it possible to conclude the adequacy of the constructed models to confirm the quality of the built forecast models.