Third-country economic consequences of Western sanctions on Russia: a thematic analysis of expert opinions in Azerbaijan

Abstract

With the beginning of a new phase of military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2022, third countries, especially countries of the former Soviet Union (post-Soviet space), are expected to suffer from Western sanctions and Russian countermeasures due to disruption or disruptions in supply chains. The systematization of literary sources on this topic proves that several studies are currently devoted to analysing the impact of international sanctions against Russia on the situation in the Baltic region. At the same time, the issue of the effects of Russian sanctions on the functioning of Azerbaijan in this context has yet to be analyzed. However, close relations between Russia and Azerbaijan and the growing importance of Azerbaijan for European energy security are essential conditions for this case study. This article aims to investigate the economic impact of sanctions on Azerbaijan through a thematic analysis of expert opinions on social media platforms (e.g. Facebook, LinkedIn) and websites dedicated to media coverage of this issue. This study analyzed 134 qualitative sources collected between February and July 2022, of which 84% of the data was in text format, while 16% was in video format. A technical assessment of expert opinion found that international trade, services (such as banking and transport), agriculture, monetary issues (inflation due to rising prices of imported products and the exchange rate) and migrants were the most discussed issues and causes of concern among experts. Significant disruptions in the Russian economy raise severe concerns about Azerbaijan’s fruit and vegetable exports, wheat imports, banking operations, inflation, reduced remittances (from Russia) and labor migration (from Russia to Azerbaijan). This study examines these patterns in light of prior expectations, suggests further research, and theorizes possible reasons for the observed patterns.