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Title Managing the EU energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions: Seasonal ARIMA forecast
Authors Kuzior, A.
Vakulenko, Ihor Anatoliiovych  
Kolosok, Svitlana Ivanivna  
Saher, Liudmyla Yuriivna  
Lieonov, Serhii Viacheslavovych  
ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6994-833X
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5133-9878
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5628-5477
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5639-3008
Keywords energy policy and security
renewable energy
climate change
Russian-Ukrainian war
greenhouse gases
sustainable development
Type Article
Date of Issue 2023
URI https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/93798
Publisher LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”
License Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License
Citation Aleksandra Kuzior, Ihor Vakulenko, Svitlana Kolosok, Liudmyla Saher and Serhiy Lyeonov (2023). Managing the EU energy crisis and greenhouse gas emissions: Seasonal ARIMA forecast. Problems and Perspectives in Management, 21(2), 383-399. doi:10.21511/ppm.21(2).2023.37
Abstract Changes in the logistics of energy resources and their potential shortage are causing a review of the EU energy policy. The energy sector significantly affects the progress toward achieving climate policy goals due to significt greenhouse gas emissions. The REPowerEU plan, implemented in the EU27 to overcome the energy crisis, requires new forecasts of greenhouse gas emissions due to a change in European energy policy. This paper aims to examine the consequences of the management of the energy crisis caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on EU climate policy. This study focuses on forecasting greenhouse gas emissions in the EU until 2030 and uses the Seasonal ARIMA model based on quarterly time series in the EU27. Depending on energy management and changes in energy policy to overcome the energy crisis, a positive or negative scenario for greenhouse gas emissions may occur. An important parameter that should be considered when determining the scenario of the EU energy development according to climate policy was defined by correlation analysis. According to the negative scenario and under the influence of the effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the value of greenhouse gas emissions in the EU at the beginning of 2030 will be 0.752911 tons per capita. The positive scenario shows greenhouse gas emissions can be reduced to 0.235225 tons per capita. The study results proved two extreme scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, depending on how to overcome the energy crisis.
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