Green Competitiveness Forecasting as an Instrument for Sustainable Business Transformation

Abstract

Modern conditions for transforming the business environment in the context of imple-menting sustainable development goals, decarbonising the economy, and ensuring cli-mate neutrality determine the need to implement effective measures at the level of indi-vidual enterprises. External challenges determine the urgency of strengthening enterpris-es' green competitive advantages and forming an integral level of green competitiveness. e paper offers a methodological basis for the long-term forecasting of enterprises' green competitiveness levels. e key object of the research is a set of companies repre-senting the machine building, agriculture, and food industries, as strategic branches of Ukraine’s economy. e period of 2020–2028 was chosen as the interval for foresight. e application of autoregressive integrated ARIMA modelling by means of the non-linear least squares method made it possible to determine transformation vectors, marketing determinants, and target orientations for increasing the integral level of green competi-tiveness. e assessment of the results showed that the leading enterprises in the optimis-tic scenario are PJSC "SVF Agrotron" (agro-industrial complex), where the predictive value of green competitiveness is 0.84; PJSC "Wimm-Bill-Dunn Ukraine" (food indus-try), for which the predictive value is 0.73; and PJSC "Motor Sich" (mechanical engineer-ing), for which the predictive value of green competitiveness is 0.74. e results of the evaluation revealed the leading enterprises according to the optimistic scenario for the agro-industrial complex, food industry, and mechanical engineering. e research sub-stantiates the claim that the priorities of the strategy for increasing the level of green com-petitiveness and the relevant determinants of its implementation should be determined considering the transformation scenarios of its level.