Innovation development and entrepreneurship management in tourism of Azerbaijan: current trends and priorities

. The article examines modern trends and priority areas of innovation development of entrepreneurship in tourism of Azerbaijan, considering national peculiarities and European trends in the tourism market. The author focused on the importance of tourism, its accessibility, and socially responsible entrepreneurship in tourism services in the sustainable development of society and the achievement of its goals. The economic effect from the tourism sector development was substantiated. Special emphasis was placed on the role and key aspects of tourism digitalization and management innovations in tourism services. At the same time, the systematization of scientific research and developments on these issues indicated the absence of a unified approach to assessing the impact of the innovation development of entrepreneurship in the tourism sector on the country's macro indicators. The main aim of the article is to study, on the one hand, the impact of increasing the tourism development level on economic growth, and on the other, innovation activity on the competitiveness of the tourism sector (based on the experience of the EU countries and Azerbaijan). The information base contains statistical and analytical data of the World Bank, World Intellectual Property Organization, World Tourism Organization, World Economic Forum. The work analyzed the main trends of the tourism services market to achieve the set goals. A SWOT analysis was carried out to determine the market's strengths and weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The key directions in the management of innovation development of entrepreneurship in tourism were characterized based on the assertion of the need to promote successful innovations in tourism and the entrepreneurial ecosystem through the stakeholders' interaction. Special attention was paid to the growing role of the state in increasing the innovation activity of tourism entrepreneurship, especially in the face of the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Arellano-Bond dynamic regression model for assessing panel data was built to empirically confirm and formalize the positive impact of the tourism development increase (based on the indicators of the share of the revenue from tourism services in total exports, the number of tourists arriving, and the number of tourist departures) on the economic growth of EU countries and Azerbaijan (expressed in GDP per capita growth). Its quality was checked using the Sargan test employing the STATA 14.2 software package. The interrelation of the studied indicators was preliminarily characterized according to the correlation analysis (Shapiro-Wilk test, calculation of Pearson / Spearman correlation coefficients with time lags). A comparative correlation and regression analysis regarding the influence of the EU countries and Azerbaijan readiness for information and communication technologies and the innovation development in general on the tourism sector competitiveness of the countries was carried out. Attention is focused on the fact that one should not dwell only on innovations in ICT in tourism and its digitalization. It is necessary to develop financial, insurance, marketing, managerial, administrative, medical, socio-cultural, environmental, and other innovations in tourism, which today are closely connected and complementary to each other. Conclusions . A study described the current state of entrepreneurship in tourism in Azerbaijan, the EU countries, and general. Attention is focused on the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for this sphere of economic activity and, accordingly, on the need to follow the trends of innovative development and digitalization, effective management and managerial innovations, a social partnership of various stakeholders on the path to achieving sustainable and competitive tourism, as well as on the increasing role of the state and possible forms of support. The positive economic effect from entrepreneurship development in the tourism sector in Azerbaijan and the EU countries has been found based on the correlation and regression analysis (Arellano-Bond dynamic regression model for evaluating panel data). It has been empirically confirmed that the 1% growth of the number of tourists arriving in the country increases the growth rate of GDP per capita by an average of 3.38%; the number of departures within international tourism – by 1.33%, the share of receipts from international tourism in total exports – by 3.64%, respectively. It was found that the competitiveness of the tourism services sector directly depends on the country's innovation development and the tourism digitalization, in particular, ICT readiness (in Azerbaijan, the effect of improving ICT readiness is achieved longer than in the EU countries, with a 2-year lag in time). It has been empirically confirmed that1% growth of the country's ICT readiness contributes to a rise in tourism competitiveness in Azerbaijan and the EU countries by an average of 0.49%; in the level of innovation development – by 0.72%. Thus, the governments of Azerbaijan and the EU countries and other stakeholders (business, investors, start-ups, etc.) should not be limited only to ICT and digitalization to develop entrepreneurship in tourism effectively. Nowadays, it is undeniably a priority, but at the same time, they should increase the level of innovation development in the country, covering other trend areas (financial, insurance, marketing, managerial, administrative, medical, socio-cultural, environmental, and other innovations).

government intervention to ensure the protection of natural resources and equitable distribution of economic benefits from tourism development, stimulation of private sector to encourage financial investment in sustainable tourism, encourage cooperation and interaction between various actors in this process. However, Saberifar et al. (2019) discussed tourist satisfaction, assessing modern infrastructure, socio-cultural and environmental conditions in the sustainable development of the tourism industry, and tourism management.
Despite the significant scientific heritage, the relationship between the innovative development of entrepreneurship in the tourism sector and its competitiveness, their effect on economic growth based on the experience of the EU countries, particularly Azerbaijan, has practically not been studied.
Methodology and research methods. A complex of general theoretical and special scientific methods was applied (factorial and comparative analysis, graphical and statistical analysis, synthesis and systematization, induction and deduction, analytical analysis, etc.) to achieve the set goals and objectives of the research. The current state, trends, and priority directions of innovative development of entrepreneurship in tourism in Azerbaijan were substantiated based on the results of dynamic and graphical analysis of data for Azerbaijan and 27 EU countries for 2009-2020, correlation analysis with preliminary Shapiro-Wilk test for compliance with the law of normal distribution. Based on it, the method for calculating the Pearson or Spearman correlation coefficient was chosen, considering possible time lags, using the Excel and STATA software. A SWOT analysis was used to determine the tourism market's strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. The regression analysis, construction of linear regression models, formalization of the obtained results empirically confirmed that with an increase in the country's readiness for ICT by 1%, the level of competitiveness of the country's tourism and travel sector would increase by an average of 0.49%. An increase in the level of the country's innovative development by 1% leads to a rise in the level of competitiveness of the country's tourism and travel sector by an average of 0.72%.
Based on a sample of data for Azerbaijan and 18 EU countries for the period 2010-2019 (the limited time and the number of EU countries included in the sample are due to the publicly available statistical data on the studied indicators), a dynamic model for assessing Arellano-Bond panel data was built. The quality of this model was verified using the Sargan test employing the STATA 14.2 software package. It has been empirically confirmed that an increase in the level of tourism development (based on indicators of proceeds from tourism services in total exports, the number of tourists arriving, and the number of tourist flights) leads to an increase in the country's GDP per capita.
Results. Today, the global goal of innovative business development in the tourism sector is to promote socially responsible, sustainable, and accessible tourism for inclusive growth. In this regard, more new directions of entrepreneurship appear in tourism, namely: recreational, health-improving, gastronomic, agritourism; ethnic, historical, ecological, cultural, religious, active, adventure, educational, sports tourism, digital tourism, etc. At the same time, such auxiliary areas of entrepreneurship in tourism as transport and transfer services, hotel, restaurant business, and other various service and entertainment services.
In turn, in Azerbaijan, based on its national peculiarities (natural resources and beautiful protected areas, recreational sea and mountainous areas, medical sanatoriums of Naftalan, centuries-old historical and cultural monuments, famous cities, interesting excursion routes, bright folk traditions, and festivals, in including gastronomic and shopping festival) the priority areas of entrepreneurship in tourism should consist of: gastronomic, health, historical, cultural, ecological, mountain, hunting, fishing, and shopping tourism. Despite its wide popularity and rapid development, the tourism market is characterized by strengths and weaknesses. A SWOT analysis was carried out to determine the opportunities and threats, strengths, and weaknesses of entrepreneurship in tourism in Azerbaijan (Table 1). The most effective and timely use of the described potential opportunities of tourism entrepreneurship and hedging possible threats in this area depends on the management effectiveness and the adequacy of its tools to our time realities. Therefore, among the key areas in the management of innovative development of entrepreneurship in tourism are as follows: 1) a socially-oriented partnership based on the assertion of the need to promote successful innovations in tourism and the entrepreneurial ecosystem through the interaction of various stakeholders such as government, business, citizens, educational and cultural institutions, investors, innovative firms, international and European organizations (UN World Tourism Organization, OECD, etc.); 2) consideration of the sustainable development goals and tourism inclusiveness in governance at various levels; 3) increasing the local management efficiency of the tourism sector, primarily in territorial communities; 4) digitalization of tourism, implementation of digital business communications, development of online travel platforms and services, etc.; 5) improving the safety of tourist services (physical safety of tourists, cyber security); 6) management and insurance of risks; 7) search and use of alternative financial resources in the development of tourism business, especially during a pandemic; 8) adaptive planning and forecasting for different time periods, application of the scenario approach; 9) customer-centrism and flexibility of management, quick response to changing requests and customers' needs, the availability of effective feedback (including due to digital technologies); 10) development of new directions, types, and forms of tourist services.
As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, regulatory changes, and health concerns, tour operators and travel agencies develop innovative entrepreneurship management strategies to reclaim and expand their customer segment. It is worth paying attention to the following managerial innovations: 1) organizing socially distant travel, reducing group travel, and expanding the range of unaccompanied travel or a fixed package of services; 2) engaging travel experts; 3) readiness and timely adaptation to changing transport expectations of customers; 4) development of digital business communications through social networks, online services, and online stores, directly developing travel sites and managing social networks, planning and managing digital presence, etc.
Nowadays, among the key innovative and digital trends in the travel and tourism industry, robotization, cybersecurity technologies, big data processing, smart control, the use of voice control and search, virtual and augmented reality, recognition technologies, contactless payments, the Internet of things, artificial intelligence are rightly distinguished, including chatbots with artificial intelligence, etc. (Knowledge Platform). During the COVID-19 pandemic, which has negatively affected and continues to affect the tourism business, the state's role in increasing the innovative activity of the tourism business is growing. The main directions of state support for tourism entrepreneurship should be budget financing of tourism and culture, which, as a rule, are carried out on a leftover basis. Besides, it is tax (tax incentives, tax holidays) and monetary (affordable and/or preferential consumer and mortgage loans) stimulating innovation in tourism, attracting businesses, investors, and start-ups in this area. The state's strategic planning for developing tourism at the local, national and international levels, and, accordingly, real support for projects and start-ups aimed at the practical development of this area, is of great importance. Direct government subsidies during the crisis period should cover hotels and travel companies and all those tourism infrastructure facilities that are on the verge of bankruptcy during a pandemic and need financial assistance. In addition, support from the state is also important based on the national economy from the tourism development. We analyze the impact of tourism development indicators on the country's economic growth based on data for Azerbaijan and 18 EU countries for 2010-2019 (the limited time and the number of EU countries included in the sample are due to the availability of publicly available statistical data on the studied indicators). Table 2 presents data on the annual growth of the gross domestic product. Tables 3-5 provide individual indicators of the tourism sector's development. Table 2 shows the indicators of the number of tourists who arrived in the country.   Sources: developed by the author based on (The World Bank, 2019). Table 5 shows the indicators of proceeds from international tourism in the total exports of Azerbaijan and the EU countries for the study period. It is necessary first to carry out a correlation analysis, preliminary checking the correspondence of the studied indicators to the normal distribution law via the Shapiro-Wilk test (Shapiro and Wilk, 1965). It would confirm (or refute) the hypothesis about the positive impact of tourism development indicators (the number of tourists arriving and the number of departures within international tourism, as well as the share of tourism receipts in total exports) on the country's economic growth (annual GDP per capita growth). Calculations are made in the STATA software package.  (Spearman, 1904).  In addition, the approximation of the obtained results to the realities of the country's development determines the feasibility of defining the correlation coefficients, considering time lags to increase their adequacy level (Table 7).  The obtained results allow concluding a direct (positive) relationship between economic growth and the number of tourists arriving in the country (17 out of 19 countries), as evidenced by the sign of the correlation coefficient. This relationship is statistically significant. The level of strength is high/very high in 15 out of 19 countries (the correlation coefficient exceeds 0.5), the average -in 4 out of 19 countries (the correlation coefficient is from 0.3 to 0.5). The relationship between economic growth and international departures is positive in 13 of the 19 countries with high and medium strengths. Similarly, a direct relationship was observed between economic growth and tourism receipts in the export of countries with high and medium strength of the relationship in 11 of the 19 countries in the sample. At the same time, based on the national peculiarities of these countries' development, the analyzed effect is observed with different time lags from 0 to 3 years. The Bond linear dynamic panel-data estimation (Arellano -Bond linear dynamic regression model) was constructed to estimate and formalize the effect under study (Arellano and Bond, 1991;Arellano, 1987). This type of model includes the lags of the dependent variable as covariates and accounts for unnoticed fixed or random panel-level effects, given the history of past influence made by regressors on the current situation. The generalized method of moments (GMM) was used to obtain adequate estimates in the dynamic model. Before building the model, the variables expressed in natural logarithms of the studied indicators (tables 2-5) would be generated based on their different dimensions, and thus increasing the model quality. The Arellano-Bond model allows considering that some variables are not entirely exogenous. They could be influenced by the past and the present value of the dependent variable (dynamics of GDP per capita). In this case, the exogenous variable could be the number of tourists arriving, the rest -endogenous. Table 8 presents the results of assessing the impact of changes in the number of tourists' arrivals, the number of flights within international tourism, and the share of the revenue from tourism in total exports on the annual growth of GDP per capita.
The value of the Wald test Prob> chi2 = 0.0000 indicates the sufficiency of the model. Significance level P> | z | of certain coefficients do not exceed 0.05 (the corresponding values are highlighted in bold; based on them, the hour lag is also determined). In addition, it is necessary to conduct a Sargan test of overidentifying restrictions to confirm the quality of the model. The test results are as follows: . estat sarg Sargan test of overidentifying restrictions H0: overidentifying restrictions are valid (1) chi2(59) = 58.15699 Prob> chi2 = 0.5066 According to the Sargan test, the recommended p-value should be at least 5% (in this case, the null hypothesis could not be rejected). In this study, Prob> chi2 = 0.5066 corresponds to the specified condition.
It has been empirically confirmed that the 1% rise in the number of tourists arriving in the country leads to an increase in the GDP per capita on average by 3.38%. An increase in the number of departures within international tourism by 1% causes an increase in the GDP per capita on average by 1.33%. The growth of the receipts from international tourism in total exports by 1% leads to the GDP per capita growth by an average of 3.64%. These results are adequate for Azerbaijan and the EU countries included in the study sample. Particular attention should be paid to the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Index (TTCI), calculated by the World Economic Forum (WEF). In 2019 Azerbaijan was 71 out of 140 countries (the last rating was published for 2019, published once every two years). At the same time, despite the relatively low result in comparison with the highly developed countries of the world and the EU countries, Azerbaijan is ahead of many post-Soviet countries, for example, Ukraine (78th place), Armenia (79th place), Kazakhstan (80th place), Moldova (103rd place), Tajikistan (104th place) (WEF, 2019). Figure 1 demonstrates the dynamics of changes in the Competitiveness Index of Azerbaijan's tourism and travel sector and the country's place in the ranking for 2009-2019. The trend is mixed, characterized by ups and downs. There is a stable level at this stage (last 4 years). One of the above-presented rating components is the country's readiness for information and communication technologies -ICT (ICT readiness). This component measures how advanced the ICT infrastructure in a country is and how widely individuals and businesses use it. Hong Kong, Denmark, and Sweden are the leaders in this indicator. Azerbaijan ranked 61st out of 140 countries in ICT readiness with an index of 5.0 (WEF, 2019). Figure 2 shows the analysis of the dynamics of changes in Azerbaijan's ICT readiness indicator and the country's place in the ranking for 2009-2019. The study compares the Competitiveness Index of the tourism and travel sector and the ICT readiness indicator as to its component. Therefore, the drop in the ICT readiness indicator hinders further improvement of the position in the competitiveness rating of the tourism and travel sector. In particular, the drop in the ICT readiness indicator over the past two years, along with other factors, led to the end of the growing trend of the index in 2019 in Azerbaijan.
For confirming this hypothesis, the Pearson correlation coefficient (Pearson, 1896) was calculated with a preliminary Shapiro-Wilk test (Shapiro and Wilk, 1965) Table 9 presents these samples. One should note that Switzerland, Sweden, and the United States are leaders in the Global Innovation Index in 2020 (WIPO, 2020). Figure 3 shows the analysis of the change dynamics in the Global Innovation Index of Azerbaijan and the country's place in the ranking for 2011-2020. Azerbaijan ranks 82nd out of 131 countries. The dynamics of the last five years are characterized by insignificant changes in the rating by two positions in different directions. Table 10 presents the Shapiro-Wilk test results (Shapiro & Wilk, 1965) on obedience to the normal distribution law of countries' ICT readiness, the level of innovative development, and the calculation of correlation coefficients (Spearman, 1904;Pearson, 1896).  The results of the correlation analysis empirically confirm the hypothesis that with an increase in the ICT readiness and innovative development of EU countries, the competitiveness level of the tourism and travel sector will also increase. At the same time, in Azerbaijan, an increase in the degree of ICT readiness leads to a rise in tourism's competitiveness with a time lag of 2 years (the level of the relationship strength between the indicators is relatively higher). In turn, the innovative development growth increases tourism competitiveness without a lag in time (the level of the relationship strength between the indicators is comparatively lower).
A regression analysis was carried out to formalize the impact of the ICT and the innovative development readiness of the EU countries and Azerbaijan (a sample of 28 countries) on the competitiveness level of the tourism and travel sector (Table 11). Sources: developed by the author using STATA software.
The significance level of the t-test does not exceed 0.05 for all coefficients of the models. Therefore, they could be considered statistically significant (the probability of an erroneous hypothesis is from 0 to 5%). The determination coefficients in the R-squared models are low (0.21 and 0.41, respectively). It is explained by including a factor indicator in the model at this stage. Significance levels Prob> F of the models (0.01 and 0.0002, respectively) indicate the adequacy of the constructed linear regression models: = 0,49 + 16,22 = 0,72 + 11,16 The results from the formalization of the studied influence led to the conclusion that with an increase in the country's ICT readiness (expressed by the corresponding indicator) by 1%, the competitiveness level of the country's tourism and travel sector (represented by the index of the same name) would increase by an average of 0.49%. In turn, an increase in the country's innovation development (expressed by the Global Innovation Index) by 1% would lead to a rise in the competitiveness level of the country's tourism and travel sector (described by the index of the same name) by an average of 0.72%. It means that the governments of the EU countries and Azerbaijan, as well as other stakeholders, should not dwell only on innovations in ICT in the field of tourism, paying more attention to financial, insurance, marketing, administrative, management, medical, socio-cultural, environmental and other innovations, which are closely related and complement each other.

Conclusions.
A study described the current state of entrepreneurship in tourism in Azerbaijan, the EU countries, and general. Attention is focused on the negative consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic for this sphere of economic activity and, accordingly, on the need to follow the trends of innovative development and digitalization, effective management and managerial innovations, a social partnership of various stakeholders on the path to achieving sustainable and competitive tourism, as well as on the increasing role of the state and possible forms of support. The positive economic effect from entrepreneurship development in the tourism sector in Azerbaijan and the EU countries has been found based on the correlation and regression analysis (Arellano-Bond dynamic regression model for evaluating panel data). It has been empirically confirmed that the 1% growth of the number of tourists arriving in the country increases the growth rate of GDP per capita by an average of 3.38%; the number of departures within international tourism -by 1.33%, the share of receipts from international tourism in total exportsby 3.64%, respectively. It was found that the competitiveness of the tourism services sector directly depends on the country's innovation development and the tourism digitalization, in particular, ICT readiness (in Azerbaijan, the effect of improving ICT readiness is achieved longer than in the EU countries, with a 2-year lag in time). It has been empirically confirmed that1% growth of the country's ICT readiness contributes to a rise in tourism competitiveness in Azerbaijan and the EU countries by an average of 0.49%; in the level of innovation development -by 0.72%. Thus, the governments of Azerbaijan and the EU countries and other stakeholders (business, investors, start-ups, etc.) should not be limited only to ICT and digitalization to develop entrepreneurship in tourism effectively. Nowadays, it is undeniably a priority, but at the same time, they should increase the level of innovation development in the country, covering other trend areas (financial, insurance, marketing, managerial, administrative, medical, socio-cultural, environmental, and other innovations).
Funding: This research received no external funding.