Фінансова політика забезпечення інноваційного розвитку України

Abstract

У дисертації емпірично підтверджено вагомість інновацій як детермінанти конкурентоспроможності країни, виявлені домінуючі тренди в крос-секторних дослідженнях, пов’язаних із теорією фінансування інновацій та розвитком основних інструментів реалізації ФП забезпечення ІР (податкових, монетарних, бюджетно-інвестиційних), обгрунтовано справедливість гіпотез щодо впливу характеристик фінансової політики на результативність інноваційного розвитку країни, а також вплив структури фінансування витрат на НДДКР на динаміку економічного зростання, оцінено структурні зв’язки між податковими і бюджетно-інвестиційними інструментами реалізації фінансової політики забезпечення інноваційного розвитку та індикаторами інноваційного / інвестиційного розвитку країни і досліджено вплив інструментів монетарної політики на динаміку фінансового забезпечення інноваційного розвитку.

The dissertation is aimed to develop theoretical basis and methodology for justification of the influence of financial policy in general and also tax, monetary, budget and investment tools of its realization on efficiency of the country's innovation development, its competitiveness and dynamics of economic growth. In the thesis, the importance of innovation development as determinant of the country's competitiveness is empirically confirmed, based on the results of correlation and regression analysis of the strength and nature of the relationship between indicators of innovation development and competitiveness in a sample of 24 European countries, which are simultaneously represented in selected international and European ratings of competitiveness evaluation. Dominant trends in cross-sectorial research related to the theory of innovation financing and the development of the main tools for the implementation of the financial policy of innovation development providing (tax, monetary, budget and investment) are identified due to bibliometric analysis using VOSViewer software. It is proved that the theory of financial policy of providing the innovation development is at the stage of its formation (about 50 % of the total number of publications for 1935–2019 have been published in the last 5 years). According to the results of the analysis of the frequency of key phrases using in scientific papers reviewed by the scientometric base Scopus, clustering of research areas depending on their connection with theories of financial policy of providing the innovation development and tax, budget, investment and monetary instruments of its realization was made. The scientific and methodological approach to substantiate the impact of the structure of financing R&D expenditures on the dynamics of economic growth (GDP growth per capita) is designed based on data for Ukraine and 11 of its closest neighbors. The duration of time lags, through which this impact becomes statistically significant, is determined. It is empirically confirmed that a 1 % increase in the share of government sector-funded R&D expenditures leads to a decrease in annual GDP growth per capita by an average of 0.15 % (excluding time), business sector – to the increase by 0.13 % with a time lag of 2 years, thanks to foreign sources – to the increase by 0.1 % (without time lag); higher education sector – to the decrease by 0.78 % (without time lag). It is substantiated that the state should reduce the share of the direct investment in innovation, focusing on effective legislation, motivating the business sector and foreign investors to increase investment in R&D to stimulate economic growth. The validity of hypotheses about the impact of the characteristics of financial policy on the effectiveness of the country's innovation development is put forward and empirically tested in 36 European countries according to data of the European Innovation Scoreboard, Global Innovation Index and Global Competitiveness Index. The positive and statistically significant impact is proved and formalized for the total gross expenditure on R&D and its share financed by business and public sectors, simplification of venture financing and increasing of market capitalization. At the same time, the hypotheses about the positive impact of lending on innovation and the availability of credit mechanisms, the existence of a guarantee system for the protection of minority investors, the growth of foreign investment in innovation and foreign capital in the economy as a whole are unconfirmed or partially confirmed. The structural links between tax, budget and investment instruments for the implementation of the financial policy of providing innovation development and indicators of innovation / investment development of the country are estimated. Based on the application of correlation analysis using Pearson and Spearman coefficients, Shapiro-Wilk and Granger tests, the direction, significance and nature of the impact of tax and investment incentives for R&D on the share of the business sector in the structure of R&D expenditures, the share of investment in GDP country and in the corporate sector in particular, and net international investment position are determined in 13 European countries for 2007–2017, taking into account time lags from 0 to 3 years. It is justified that the highest priority should be given to the establishment of tax incentives for R&D (their impact on the studied macro indicators in most countries is direct and manifests itself in the shortest possible time), the second priority should be given to setting hidden rates of business tax subsidies for R&D, and direct public financial support is inefficient. With the help of regression analysis tools, lag models of the impact of R&D tax incentives on the studied macroindicators in Belgium, Denmark, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic, where this impact is most significant, are built. The impact of monetary policy instruments on the dynamics of financing innovation development is investigated by means of dynamic and correlationregression analysis of monetary policy instruments in Ukraine and 12 European countries for 2009–2019, based on the construction of a linear regression model of panel data estimation. It is empirically confirmed that a 1 % increase in the discount rate leads to a decrease in the share of R&D expenditures in the country's GDP by an average of 0.04 % (excluding time) (in Ukraine – to the decrease by 0.009 % with a time lag of 1 year), a 1 % increase in real interest rate – to the decrease by 0.02 % (without time lag) (in Ukraine – to the increase by 0.004 % with lag in 1 year), a 1 % increase in the ratio of "broad money" to total reserves – to increase by 0.11 % (without time lag) (in Ukraine – to decrease by 0.03 % without time lag), 1% increase in the ratio of liquid reserves to bank assets – to increase by 0.007 % (without time lag) (in Ukraine – to decrease by 0.03 % with a lag of 2 years). It is proved that in Ukraine monetary instruments don’t fully perform regulatory function in the context of R&D stimulation.