Інформаційна безпека як драйвер розвитку національної економіки

Abstract

У дисертації уточнено змістовну сутність інформаційної безпеки та сформовано концептуальну модель її забезпечення в системі управління національної економіки; структуровано науковий доробок щодо напрямів дослідження інформаційної безпеки як драйверу розвитку національної економіки; сформовано склад показників для оцінювання її рівня шляхом канонічного аналізу взаємного впливу індикаторів її розвитку та інформатизації; розроблено методологію інтегрального оцінювання рівня інформаційної безпеки національної економіки та аналізу її ефективності; досліджено залежність національних патернів забезпечення інформаційної безпеки населення від рівня економічного розвитку країни та суспільних традицій; обгрунтовано вплив рівня кібербезпеки країни на її привабливість для легалізації кримінальних доходів; визначено часові характеристики впливу "інформаційних бульбашок" на функціонування глобального цифрового економічного простору; удосконалено методологічні засади обгрунтування таргетів та напрямків реформування системи забезпечення інформаційної безпеки в Україні; поглиблено методологію обгрунтування пріоритетів формування державних секторальних та галузевих програм у напрямку її забезпечення; розроблено методологію визначення ролі цифрової спроможності та кібербезпеки країни у забезпеченні збалансованості розвитку національної економіки; поглиблено методичні засади експрес-оцінювання ризиків втрати інформації; на засадах системно-динамічного імітаційного моделювання поглиблено підхід до вибору найбільш ефективної системи захисту інформації; запропоновано трьохрівневу систему попередження фінансових кіберзагроз.

The development of the latest information technologies and the digitalization of the national economy are accompanied by an increase in cybercrime and losses from information leaks. Thus, the creation of a reliable information security system at all levels of management of the national economy is required to prevent various kinds of cyber threats and stimulate its development. This research was aimed at solving such issues as substantiating the essence and role of information security in the national economy, developing an assessment methodology and determining its place in ensuring the national economic development, establishing cause-and-effect relationships in studying the impact of information security on the balance of the national economy, developing applied methodological tools for increasing the information security. The suggested concept of “information security”, taking into account its multi-component and dynamism, made it possible to form the concept of its provision in the national economy management system, which formalizes threats as prerequisites for violating the integrity, confidentiality, and availability of information security objects, defines the agents, means, and mechanisms of control. The bibliometric analysis of scientific papers allows determining the relevance of information security issues and defining the dominant vectors of its research in the context of economic areas. The use of canonical analysis for a group of indicators of the digital capacity of the national economy and cybersecurity and seven groups of indicators characterizing the economic, social and financial development of the national economy, foreign economic activity, innovative activity, the quality of information infrastructure and the institutional capacity of the state revealed that the digital national economic and cybersecurity capabilities and institutional capacity have the most significant mutual influence. These results contributed to the development of an integral index of information security of the national economy using the method of advantages and the Harrington-Mencher function and to create a rating of the countries according to them. It turned out that Ukraine has a satisfactory level of information security of the national economy. The clustering of countries through constructing self-organizing maps was carried out, and the analysis of the comparative effectiveness of the components of the information security system of the national economy using the DEA analysis revealed the structural inefficiency of the sub-indices of the integral index of the information security of the national economy to ensure its maximum level. For Ukraine, the value of its effectiveness is 63.7%, which is a consequence of the inefficiency of institutional capacity indicators. Their improvement from 8.91% to 88.57% will ensure the maximum increase in the efficiency of information security of the national economy by 57.04%. The cluster analysis confirmed an influence of measures of public authorities on the consequences of cyber incidents and dependencies between the level of well-being, national social traditions, mental and cultural characteristics of the country, and personal security measures that are preferred by the population of European countries. Gravity modeling was used to prove that the level of their information security affects the level of attractiveness of countries for money laundering. The results provided a list of countries for which Ukraine is the most attractive in terms of money laundering. This step will improve regulatory policy and promote the convergence of cybersecurity and state financial monitoring systems. The results of modeling information activities using the Sedva-Taylor model have proven the existence of destabilizing effects of the information environment on the national economy, which will allow timely identification of signs of collapse in its various sectors. Multiple attribute decision making was used to found that the most critical targets of information security for Ukraine are the system of analysis and information about cyber threats, cyber crisis management, Ukraine’s activities regarding its contribution to global cybersecurity, and the organization of military cyber operations. The justification of the priorities for the formation of state sectoral and industrial programs towards ensuring the information security of the national economy made it possible to identify enterprises that are most vulnerable to the consequences of cyber threats and to establish an economically feasible limit range of costs for information security. The methodology for constructing a four-pole barycentric model allows determining the level of balance between economic, political, social development and the development of digital capabilities and cybersecurity of countries. Ukraine was found to be an outsider among unbalanced countries, for which the most promising factor is a composite indicator of digital capability and cybersecurity. To ensure the development of applied methodological tools for increasing information security, methods are proposed for express assessment of the risks of information and data loss, which can be used to determine the probable catalysts of incidents, taking into account the frequency of their recurrence and the monetary assessment of damage from loss of information, regardless of the information security subjects. The developed method of system dynamics modeling allows substantiating the processes of rebuilding security systems, and its testing for blockchain technology showed its efficiency. The proposed methodology for creating an applied three-tier system for preventing financial and cyber threats allows identifying “bottlenecks” in the protection system that cause uncontrolled information leakage or cybercriminals’ interference; identify the agents of operations according to various criteria corresponding to the elements of cybercrimes; identify operations based on cybercrime elements. The methods tested on financial sector data have helped prevent financial and cyber threats.