Видання зареєстровані авторами шляхом самоархівування
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Item The hospitality market in Ukraine: War challenges and restoration possibilities(LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”, 2023) Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Zhuravka, Fedir Oleksandrovych; Nebaba, N.; Yudina, O.; Haponenko, S.; Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Filatova, Hanna PetrivnaThe Crimea annexation and the military aggression of the Russian Federation, which first began in some territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions in 2014 and escalated into a full-scale war on February 24, 2022, resulted in heavy losses of life and a humanitarian crisis, exacerbating economic, political and social instability. To restore Ukraine’s economy, all businesses, including hospitality (hotel and restaurant business) sector, should continue functioning, though it is a challenging but crucial task. The paper aims to analyze the state of the hospitality market in the current war conditions in Ukraine and assess the possibilities of its restoration and development. An online survey was conducted among 282 representatives of the hospitality business in Kyiv, Sumy, Chernihiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv, Poltava, Ivano-Frankivsk, Lviv, Ternopil, and Zakarpattia regions. Based on the results, in 2022, almost 23% of hospitality industry representatives suspended their activities, and 54% functioned only partially. Many surveyed hotels and restaurants (36%) have gradually changed and adapted their business strategies. For more than half of the hospitality representatives, expenses increased by 20-50%, and profits dropped by more than 20%. The critical consequences of the full-scale war for the Ukrainian hospitality market are as follows: disruption of supply chains, reduction in consumers’ purchasing power, changes in consumer demand, shortage of certain types of products, shortage of personnel, and business unprofitability.Item Розвиток ринку міжнародного туризму в умовах пандемії COVID-19: світові тенденції та Україна(Національна академія управління, 2021) Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Журавка, Федор Александрович; Zhuravka, Fedir Oleksandrovych; Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Филатова, Анна Петровна; Filatova, Hanna Petrivna; Галинська, Юлія Вікторівна; Галинская, Юлия Викторовна; Halynska, Yuliia Viktorivna; Ярова, Інесса Євгенівна; Яровая, Инесса Евгеньевна; Yarova, Inessa YevhenivnaУ статті аналізується важливість туризму для соціально-економічної системи країни, а також здійснюється оцінка тенденцій розвитку сфери туризму за сучасних умов впливу пандемії COVID-19. Обґрунтовано можливі шляхи подолання наслідків пандемії для туристичної галузі в Україні та відновлення її позицій на світовому ринку туристичних послуг.Item Government debt forecasting based on the Arima model(LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”, 2019) Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Журавка, Федор Александрович; Zhuravka, Fedir Oleksandrovych; Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Филатова, Анна Петровна; Filatova, Hanna Petrivna; John O. AiyedogbonThe paper explores theoretical and practical aspects of forecasting the government debt in Ukraine. A visual analysis of changes in the amount of government debt was conducted, which has made it possible to conclude about the deepening of the debt crisis in the country. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is considered as the basic forecasting model; besides, the model work and its diagnostics are estimated. The EViews software package illustrates the procedure for forecasting the Ukrainian government debt for the ARIMA model: the series for stationarity was tested, the time series of monthly government debt was converted into stationary by making a number of transformations and determining model parameters; as a result, the most optimal specification for the ARIMA model was chosen. Based on the simulated time series, it is concluded that ARIMA tools can be used to predict the government debt values.Item State’s debt sustainability management: case of Ukraine(LLC “Consulting Publishing Company “Business Perspectives”, 2018) Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Журавка, Федор Александрович; Zhuravka, Fedir Oleksandrovych; Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Филатова, Анна Петровна; Filatova, Hanna Petrivna; Podmarov O.; Aldiwani K.; Shukairi F.Nowadays one of the relevant problems of economic development of Ukraine is the excessive increasing of the public debt that has a number of negative consequences for the financial system of the country. The article is devoted to the research of state’s debt sustainability concept. Special attention is paid to the development of an effective system of debt sustainability management. The aim of the article is to study the theoretical bases of the state’s debt sustainability, investigate scientific and methodological approaches to its management, analyze the public debt and debt sustainability of Ukraine. In order to achieve that goal, the following scientific methods were used: analysis and generalization, decomposition analysis, comparison and compilation. The authors analyzed the structure of the debt sustainability management system: objects, subjects, key principles, objectives, methods, instruments, etc. The list of key indicators of debt sustainability was substantiated and the authors compared their normative values in Ukraine and in world practice. Besides, the state and structure of public debt and the ratio of government debt to GDP were scrutinized. The obtained results proved the debt crisis deepening in Ukraine.Item Оцінка впливу показників економічного розвитку на державний борг України(ВНЗ «Національна академія управління», 2020) Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Филатова, Анна Петровна; Filatova, Hanna Petrivna; Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Журавка, Федор Александрович; Zhuravka, Fedir OleksandrovychДержавний борг є не просто засобом залучення коштів для фінансування державних потреб, а й дієвим інструментом стабілізації економічного розвитку країни, на основі оцінювання та аналізу якого можна прийняти ефективні управлінські рішення на державному рівні, розробити ефективні заходи по покращенню економічної та боргової ситуації в країні. У статті здійснено оцінювання впливу показників економічного розвитку на державний борг України за допомогою моделей з розподіленим лагом. Зроблено висновок про можливість оцінювання часового відставання між показниками, а також про перспективи здійснення прогнозних розрахунків як для показника державного боргу, так і для ключових індикаторів економічного розвитку країни.Item State debt assessment and forecasting: time series analysis(LLC “СPС “Business Perspectives”, 2021) Журавка, Федір Олександрович; Журавка, Федор Александрович; Zhuravka, Fedir Oleksandrovych; Філатова, Ганна Петрівна; Филатова, Анна Петровна; Filatova, Hanna Petrivna; Šuleř, P.; Wołowiec, T.One of the pressing problems in the modern development of the world financial system is an excessive increase in state debt, which has many negative consequences for the financial system of any country. At the same time, special attention should be paid to developing an effective state debt management system based on its forecast values. The paper is aimed at determining the level of persistence and forecasting future values of state debt in the short term using time series analysis, i.e., an ARIMA model. The study covers the time series of Ukraine’s state debt data for the period from December 2004 to November 2020. A visual analysis of the dynamics of state debt led to the conclusion about the unstable debt situation in Ukraine and a significant increase in debt over the past six years. Using the Hurst exponent, the paper provides the calculated value of the level of persistence in time series data. Based on the obtained indicator, a conclusion was made on the confirmation of expediency to use autoregressive models for predicting future dynamics of Ukraine’s state debt. Using the EViews software, the procedure for forecasting Ukraine’s state debt by utilizing the ARIMA model was illustrated, i.e., the series was tested for stationarity, the time series of monthly state debt data were converted to stationary, the model parameters were determined and, as a result, the most optimal specification of the ARIMA model was selected.