Моделювання економічної стійкості малого підприємництва в умовах кризи (на прикладі ТОВ «Делота»)
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Date
2025
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Сумський державний університет
Bachelor’s paper
Date of Defense
Scientific Director
Speciality
051 - Економіка
Date of Presentation
June 2025
Abstract
У роботі досліджено проблему забезпечення економічної стійкості малого підприємства в умовах кризових явищ, які характерні для сучасної економіки України. Особлива увага приділена аналізу й моделюванню взаємозв’язків між фінансово-економічними показниками підприємства та рівнем його економічної стійкості на прикладі діяльності ТОВ «Делота» у 2022–2024 роках.
У першому розділі роботи здійснено теоретичне узагальнення сутності економічної стійкості як багатофакторного та багатовимірного економічного явища. Розглянуто основні підходи до її визначення, виділено ключові складові (фінансова, виробнича, ресурсна, інноваційна, організаційна), а також охарактеризовано зовнішні та внутрішні чинники, що знижують або посилюють стійкість суб’єктів малого бізнесу в умовах нестабільності. Наведено огляд сучасних методик оцінювання економічної стійкості, включаючи індикаторний аналіз, інтегральні моделі, експертні підходи та економіко-математичне моделювання. Особливе місце відведено регресійному аналізу як засобу ідентифікації залежностей між показниками та побудови прогнозних моделей.
У другому розділі представлено прикладну частину дослідження, яка базується на детальному фінансово-економічному аналізі діяльності ТОВ «Делота». Проаналізовано основні показники за 2022–2024 роки, включаючи динаміку активів, зобов’язань, виручки, прибутку, ліквідності, рентабельності, обіговості тощо. Проведено кореляційний аналіз фінансових коефіцієнтів, що дозволив виявити структурні взаємозв’язки між ключовими параметрами діяльності підприємства. Побудовано багатофакторні регресійні моделі для оцінювання впливу окремих факторів на чистий прибуток і рентабельність власного капіталу. Результати показали, що найбільший вплив на економічну стійкість мають обсяг виручки та рівень короткострокових зобов’язань.
У рамках моделювання економічної динаміки здійснено прогноз економічної стійкості на 2025 рік за допомогою лінійної регресії. Для цього розраховано інтегральний індекс, що базується на співвідношенні прибутку до поточних зобов’язань. Прогноз свідчить про позитивну тенденцію до зміцнення фінансового стану підприємства за умови збереження існуючих стратегій управління ресурсами.
Дослідження має як теоретичну, так і практичну значущість: з одного боку, систематизовано підходи до оцінювання економічної стійкості в умовах турбулентності, а з іншого – запропоновано адаптовану модель прогнозування, придатну до застосування у реальних умовах діяльності малих підприємств. Результати дипломної роботи можуть бути використані керівництвом підприємства для ухвалення стратегічних рішень, а також слугувати основою для подальших наукових досліджень у сфері антикризового фінансового управління.
The paper examines the problem of ensuring the economic sustainability of a small enterprise in the context of crisis phenomena that are characteristic of the modern economy of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the analysis and modeling of the relationships between the financial and economic indicators of the enterprise and the level of its economic sustainability using the example of the activities of Delota LLC in 2022–2024. The first section of the work provides a theoretical generalization of the essence of economic sustainability as a multifactorial and multidimensional economic phenomenon. The main approaches to its definition are considered, key components are highlighted (financial, production, resource, innovation, organizational), and external and internal factors that reduce or increase the stability of small business entities in conditions of instability are characterized. An overview of modern methods for assessing economic sustainability is provided, including indicator analysis, integral models, expert approaches, and economic and mathematical modeling. A special place is given to regression analysis as a means of identifying dependencies between indicators and building predictive models. The second section presents the applied part of the study, which is based on a detailed financial and economic analysis of the activities of Delota LLC. The main indicators for 2022–2024 are analyzed, including the dynamics of assets, liabilities, revenue, profit, liquidity, profitability, turnover, etc. A correlation analysis of financial ratios was conducted, which allowed us to identify structural relationships between key parameters of the enterprise's activities. Multifactor regression models were constructed to assess the impact of individual factors on net profit and return on equity. The results showed that the volume of revenue and the level of short-term liabilities have the greatest impact on economic sustainability. As part of the economic dynamics modeling, a forecast of economic sustainability for 2025 was made using linear regression. For this purpose, an integral index was calculated based on the ratio of profit to current liabilities. The forecast indicates a positive trend towards strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise, provided that the existing resource management strategies are maintained. The study has both theoretical and practical significance: on the one hand, it systematizes approaches to assessing economic stability in turbulent conditions, and on the other hand, it proposes an adapted forecasting model suitable for use in real-world conditions of small businesses. The results of the thesis can be used by the company's management to make strategic decisions, as well as serve as the basis for further scientific research in the field of anti-crisis financial management
The paper examines the problem of ensuring the economic sustainability of a small enterprise in the context of crisis phenomena that are characteristic of the modern economy of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the analysis and modeling of the relationships between the financial and economic indicators of the enterprise and the level of its economic sustainability using the example of the activities of Delota LLC in 2022–2024. The first section of the work provides a theoretical generalization of the essence of economic sustainability as a multifactorial and multidimensional economic phenomenon. The main approaches to its definition are considered, key components are highlighted (financial, production, resource, innovation, organizational), and external and internal factors that reduce or increase the stability of small business entities in conditions of instability are characterized. An overview of modern methods for assessing economic sustainability is provided, including indicator analysis, integral models, expert approaches, and economic and mathematical modeling. A special place is given to regression analysis as a means of identifying dependencies between indicators and building predictive models. The second section presents the applied part of the study, which is based on a detailed financial and economic analysis of the activities of Delota LLC. The main indicators for 2022–2024 are analyzed, including the dynamics of assets, liabilities, revenue, profit, liquidity, profitability, turnover, etc. A correlation analysis of financial ratios was conducted, which allowed us to identify structural relationships between key parameters of the enterprise's activities. Multifactor regression models were constructed to assess the impact of individual factors on net profit and return on equity. The results showed that the volume of revenue and the level of short-term liabilities have the greatest impact on economic sustainability. As part of the economic dynamics modeling, a forecast of economic sustainability for 2025 was made using linear regression. For this purpose, an integral index was calculated based on the ratio of profit to current liabilities. The forecast indicates a positive trend towards strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise, provided that the existing resource management strategies are maintained. The study has both theoretical and practical significance: on the one hand, it systematizes approaches to assessing economic stability in turbulent conditions, and on the other hand, it proposes an adapted forecasting model suitable for use in real-world conditions of small businesses. The results of the thesis can be used by the company's management to make strategic decisions, as well as serve as the basis for further scientific research in the field of anti-crisis financial management
The paper examines the problem of ensuring the economic sustainability of a small enterprise in the context of crisis phenomena that are characteristic of the modern economy of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the analysis and modeling of the relationships between the financial and economic indicators of the enterprise and the level of its economic sustainability using the example of the activities of Delota LLC in 2022–2024. The first section of the work provides a theoretical generalization of the essence of economic sustainability as a multifactorial and multidimensional economic phenomenon. The main approaches to its definition are considered, key components are highlighted (financial, production, resource, innovation, organizational), and external and internal factors that reduce or increase the stability of small business entities in conditions of instability are characterized. An overview of modern methods for assessing economic sustainability is provided, including indicator analysis, integral models, expert approaches, and economic and mathematical modeling. A special place is given to regression analysis as a means of identifying dependencies between indicators and building predictive models. The second section presents the applied part of the study, which is based on a detailed financial and economic analysis of the activities of Delota LLC. The main indicators for 2022–2024 are analyzed, including the dynamics of assets, liabilities, revenue, profit, liquidity, profitability, turnover, etc. A correlation analysis of financial ratios was conducted, which allowed us to identify structural relationships between key parameters of the enterprise's activities. Multifactor regression models were constructed to assess the impact of individual factors on net profit and return on equity. The results showed that the volume of revenue and the level of short-term liabilities have the greatest impact on economic sustainability. As part of the economic dynamics modeling, a forecast of economic sustainability for 2025 was made using linear regression. For this purpose, an integral index was calculated based on the ratio of profit to current liabilities. The forecast indicates a positive trend towards strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise, provided that the existing resource management strategies are maintained. The study has both theoretical and practical significance: on the one hand, it systematizes approaches to assessing economic stability in turbulent conditions, and on the other hand, it proposes an adapted forecasting model suitable for use in real-world conditions of small businesses. The results of the thesis can be used by the company's management to make strategic decisions, as well as serve as the basis for further scientific research in the field of anti-crisis financial management
The paper examines the problem of ensuring the economic sustainability of a small enterprise in the context of crisis phenomena that are characteristic of the modern economy of Ukraine. Particular attention is paid to the analysis and modeling of the relationships between the financial and economic indicators of the enterprise and the level of its economic sustainability using the example of the activities of Delota LLC in 2022–2024. The first section of the work provides a theoretical generalization of the essence of economic sustainability as a multifactorial and multidimensional economic phenomenon. The main approaches to its definition are considered, key components are highlighted (financial, production, resource, innovation, organizational), and external and internal factors that reduce or increase the stability of small business entities in conditions of instability are characterized. An overview of modern methods for assessing economic sustainability is provided, including indicator analysis, integral models, expert approaches, and economic and mathematical modeling. A special place is given to regression analysis as a means of identifying dependencies between indicators and building predictive models. The second section presents the applied part of the study, which is based on a detailed financial and economic analysis of the activities of Delota LLC. The main indicators for 2022–2024 are analyzed, including the dynamics of assets, liabilities, revenue, profit, liquidity, profitability, turnover, etc. A correlation analysis of financial ratios was conducted, which allowed us to identify structural relationships between key parameters of the enterprise's activities. Multifactor regression models were constructed to assess the impact of individual factors on net profit and return on equity. The results showed that the volume of revenue and the level of short-term liabilities have the greatest impact on economic sustainability. As part of the economic dynamics modeling, a forecast of economic sustainability for 2025 was made using linear regression. For this purpose, an integral index was calculated based on the ratio of profit to current liabilities. The forecast indicates a positive trend towards strengthening the financial condition of the enterprise, provided that the existing resource management strategies are maintained. The study has both theoretical and practical significance: on the one hand, it systematizes approaches to assessing economic stability in turbulent conditions, and on the other hand, it proposes an adapted forecasting model suitable for use in real-world conditions of small businesses. The results of the thesis can be used by the company's management to make strategic decisions, as well as serve as the basis for further scientific research in the field of anti-crisis financial management
Keywords
моделювання, modelling, економічна стійкість, economic stability, криза, crisis, регресійний аналіз, regression analysis
Citation
Захарченко Р. С. Моделювання економічної стійкості малого підприємництва в умовах кризи (на прикладі ТОВ «Делота») : робота на здобуття кваліфікаційного ступеня бакалавра : спец. 051 - економіка / наук. кер. О. В. Колотіліна. Суми : Сумський державний університет, 2025. 54 с.