Economic growth and public governance: foresight scenarios

Abstract

The stable social and economic development of the national economy could be achieved by developing the mechanism to solve the contradictions in the triangle: society-government-economics. In this case, the most crucial goal was synchronising and harmonisation of economics and political reforms on the target and goals. In the paper, the authors highlighted that reforming was closely connected to the foresight of political institutions impact on econo-mic development, which emphasised the features and efficiency of the national economy. The paper goal was to the foresight of economic growth, considering the tendency on political ins-titutions efficiency. The generalisation of the approaches to estimate of the political institutions' role, confirmed the significant impact on the social development. Thus, political institutions structured the institutional environment and developed the stimulus on offers of production's factors, specialisation and realisation of innovations. The political competitiveness had an impact on the different parts of the neoclassical model of economic growth: the accumulation of labour and capital, the accumulation of human capital, and productivity. However, the scientists had not investigated the features of political institutions' impact on the quality and quantity parameters of economic growth mentioned above. The study used the developed auto-regressive integrated moving average model (ARIMA) for the foresight of economic growth of the selected countries considering the tendency on political institutions efficiency. The null hypothesis of the investigation was the checking of a unit root was present in a time series sample using the augmented Dickey-Fuller test. The core criteria of political institutions' efficiency were indicators developed by the World Bank – «The Worldwide Government Indicators». The time of analysis was 2000-2019 with a forecast horizon of 10 years. The findings confirmed the dependency of economic growth from the level of corruption and political stability at the most significant level. It means that declining corruption leads to direct and indirect positive effects: increasing the efficiency of political institutions.