Disaggregated Short-Term Inflation Forecast (STIF) for Monetary Policy Decision in Sierra Leone

Abstract

In this paper, the researchers have developed a short-term inflation forecasting (STIF) model using Box-Jenkins time series approach (ARIMA) for analysing inflation and associated risks in Sierra Leone. The model is aided with fan charts for all thirteen components, including the Headline CPI as communication tools to inform the general public about uncertainties that surround price dynamics in Sierra Leone – this then make it possible for policy makers to utilise expert judgments in a bid to stabilize the economy.