Аналіз впливу зовнішньоекономічних чинників на добробут населення України в умовах світових інтеграційних процесів

Abstract

У статті оцінено вплив зовнішньоекономічних факторів на добробут населення України. Розроблено модель залежності валового внутрішнього продукту (ВВП) на душу населення від обсягів імпорту України за допомогою кореляційно-регресійних методів аналізу. Виокремлено негативні тенденції у зовнішньоекономічній діяльності України, які дестабілізують соціально-економічний розвиток країни.

В статье оценено влияние внешнеэкономических факторов на благососстояние населения Украины. Разработана модель зависимости валового внутреннего продукта (ВВП) на душу населения от объемов импорта Украины с помощью корелляционно-регрессионных методов анализа. Выделены негативные тенденции во внешнеэкономической деятельности Украины, которые дестабилизируют социально-экономическое развитие страны.

The aim of the article is to study and assess the impact of the foreign economic factors on the welfare of Ukrainian population in the conditions of Ukraine’s integration into the world community

The results of the analysis. Ukraine’s integration to the world community has not only a significant impact on the development of Ukrainian foreign trade, but also causes the deep changes in the national economy and social sphere. In the article we have proposed an approach to develop an econometric model of Ukraine's GDP per capita dependence on the import volume. For the modeling we have chosen the following indicators of foreign-economic activity as exports of goods and services (X1); imports of goods and services (X2); foreign trade balance (X3) and foreign direct investments (X4). The impact of the foreign-economic factors on the welfare of population in Ukraine has been evaluated. The model of the GDP per capita dependence on the imports of Ukraine with the use of correlation and regression methods of analysis has been developed. The model’s diagnosis has been made. The research results have been appraised by the system of coefficient. It has been proved, that the econometric model is statistically adequate and significant. This model has practical value, because it allows to optimize the Ukrainian foreign-economic activity. In the article the negative trends of Ukrainian foreign-economic activity, which destabilize the socioeconomic development of the country have been pointed out. The methodological significance of the proposed model is that it demonstrates the foreign-economic factors, including imports have affected on the welfare of the Ukrainian population.

Conclusions and directions of further researches. Thus, according to the econometric model the presence of a significant impact of imports of goods and services to the GDP per capita in Ukraine has been proved. The high dependence of GDP per capita on the import activity is extremely economically dangerous, because the raw materials took the largest share in the import volume (almost 30% in 2014). The Ukrainian foreign-economic activity is highly dependent on imports of mineral products, materials, machinery and equipment. So, nowadays the transition of the national economy to the technological base of the post-industrial society is essential. It will reduce high dependence of Ukrainian economy on the import and ensure the productivity and social progress.

As adequate and statistically significant, the proposed model can be used for the further analysis and forecasting. In long term the research will concern the ways and areas of minimization of Ukrainian economy and social sphere dependence on the imports of goods and services.