Економіко-математичне забезпечення функціонування перестрахового ринку

Abstract

Монографія присвячена висвітленню теоретичних і практичних аспектів моделювання та прогнозування розвитку перестрахового ринку. Значну увагу приділено актуальності та розкриттю суті економіко-математичних методів аналізу й оцінювання ринку як об’єкта моделювання (ймовірнісний підхід, теорія часових рядів, таксонометричний метод, нелінійне програмування, математичний аналіз, цілочислова оптимізація та теорія нечіткої логіки). Для широкого кола економістів, які досліджують проблеми моделювання та прогнозування економічних процесів, студентів, аспірантів економічних спеціальностей, викладачів і науковців, а також фахівців з питань страхової та перестрахової діяльності.

Formulation and solution of the actual scientific problems of developing theoretical and methodological approach and tools of economic-mathematical modeling estimation and forecasting of reinsurance market were been implemented in this monograph. Monograph is stressed on grounded theoretical and methodological approach to the complex models formation of evaluation, analysis and forecasting reinsurance market development based on the catastrophe theory and the theory of modeling systems, allowing to determine the temporal and structural features of the system-components market. It is proposed a scientific and methodical approach to the evaluation of the reinsurance market capacity, which is based on the adjustment of the imaginary component of apparent one by combination of taxonomic method and the method simulated modeling. Applied research results are to evaluate the integration level of the banking sector, the insurance and reinsurance markets; assessment of the competitiveness of the reinsurance market participants; optimization strategies for conduct reinsurance companies; concept of active reinsurance regulation. Monograph is stressed on construction a model estimating the relationship of reinsurance market, stock market and banking sector, which is based on the principles of causality and econometric modeling, allowing to determine the extent and direction of the relationship between latent implicit variables (development levels of backbone elements of the model). The evaluation model of the reinsurance market openness level were been implemented in this manuscript based on gravity modeling, which allowed to quantitatively describe and predict indicators of performance and integration functioning of reinsurance market participants, to formalize the causal relationship between the directions of active and passive reinsurance. To the main theoretical approaches of the study are related the construction of the demand, supply functions and competition of reinsurance market, the implementation of which would allow the identification of the market static and dynamic balance, the impulse to enhance the reinsurance market growth. It is developed a probabilistic model and an integral risk assessment of reinsurance market. Probabilistic assessment yielded to achieve quantitative measurement of reinsurance market risk considering its previous level and current market information. Integer risk assessment provided an opportunity to identify risk incidents. Methodical provision to formalize the process of the reinsurance market stabilizing on the basis of the Gale-Shapley reconcile pending algorithm , which allow to evaluate the possibility of saving, smoothing or enhancing development imbalances of reinsurance market was been implemented in this manuscript. Monograph is stressed on proposition of a scientific and methodical approach to the evaluation of the reinsurance market financial security, which is defined as the decomposition analysis of integral index of financial security, the construction of an additive trend-cycle model, the study of models by methods of differential calculus, which allows to analyze resonance phenomena in the cyclical dynamics of the reinsurance market.