Moving average method in epidemic process forecasting
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Date
2017
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Sumy State University
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Scientific Director
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Abstract
In this study, the application of the
moving average method to the forecasting of the
epidemic process is considered. As an example, the
method is used to predict the incidence of ixodes tick
borreliosis. To automate the calculation of the
forecast, a software package was developed. The
accuracy of the results was verified on real statistical
data on morbidity in the Kharkiv region.
Keywords
moving average methods, forecasting, epidemic process, ixodes tick borreliosis, прогнозування, прогнозирование, епідемічний процес, эпидемический процесс
Citation
Piletskiy P.E.
Moving average method in epidemic process forecasting [Текст] / P.E. Piletskiy, D.I. Chumachenko // Advanced Information Systems and Technologies : proceedings of the V international scientific conference, Sumy, May 17-19 2017/ Edited by S.І. Protsenko, V.V. Shendryk. - Sumy : Sumy State University, 2017. - P. 12-14.