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Title Assessing the dynamics of bifurcation transformations in the economy
Authors Vasylieva, Tetiana Anatoliivna  
Kuzmenko, Olha Vitaliivna  
Bozhenko, Viktoriia Volodymyrivna  
Kolotilina, Olena Vasylivna  
ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-0635-7978
http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8575-5725
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9435-0065
http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8928-0859
Keywords біфукарційний аналіз
bifurcation analysis
трансформація економіки
economy transformation
фазовий портрет
phase portrait
Type Conference Papers
Date of Issue 2019
URI https://essuir.sumdu.edu.ua/handle/123456789/80912
Publisher SHS Web of Conferences
License Copyright not evaluated
Citation Vasilyeva T., Kuzmenko O., Bozhenko V., Kolotilina O. Assessing the dynamics of bifurcation transformations in the economy. The 8th International Conference on Monitoring, Modeling & Management of Emergent Economy (M3E2 2019): Book of Proceedings, Odessa, 22-24 May 2019. SHS Web of Conferences, 2019. Volume 65 № 04006. DOI: 10.1051/shsconf/20196504006
Abstract The current global economy faces pivotal changes in the system of its organization, which are essentially transforming relations between economic agents, government institutions, and the population of a particular country. Therefore, the study aims to quantitatively assess the level of transformations in the social, economic and political development of some European countries (Ukraine, France, Italy) using bifurcation theory for the period of 2000-2017. The proposed scientific and methodological approach to assessing the level of transformations in the social, economic and political development of a particular country involves the step-wise implementation: 1) the formation of an information base for the study, which involves collecting and testing statistical data for anomaly detection using the Irwin method, and selecting relevant indicators affecting the social, political and economic situation based on the principal component analysis; 2) the normalization of indicators of the political, economic and social situation using the Harrington’s approach; 3) the formation of integral indicators of the social, political and economic situation in the country based on the convolution of normalized indicators; 4) the determination of the dynamic properties of the social, political and economic situation in the country by constructing differential equations, which allows determining the existence of a bifurcation type (saddle, focus, node). The empirical study has shown that the indicator of stability of the political and social sphere of Italy was in disequilibrium and was subject to constant fluctuations. At the same time, the stability indicator of the social and economic component of Italy is characterized by an unstable state; and the external influence of negative factors will lead the system to imbalance. In Ukraine there is a stable political and economic and socioeconomic state of the system, i.e. negative impacts will lead the system to equilibrium and further positive development according to the components of the country. The development of the political and social sphere is characterized by the equilibrium state, and continues to develop according to the acquired tendency. The resulting methodological and practical developments will serve as a guide for the state authorities of the respective country for adjusting current macroeconomic policies and developing strategic plans for social and economic development.
Appears in Collections: Наукові видання (ННІ ФЕМ)

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