Evaluating the threat to national information security

Abstract

An effective strategy for managing the national information security with capabilities to resist information threats significantly impacts its further development. This study aims to assess the level of threat to the information security of countries based on the integral index. It is proposed to use five indicators characterizing individual areas of information security and 37 world development indicators, selected from the World Bank database. Correlation analysis selected 12 out of 37 development indicators relevant to security indicators for which the correlation coefficient exceeded 0.5 or –0.5. The Harrington-Mencher function is proposed to determine the information security threat index. Nonlinear normalization was carried out to bring the initial data to a comparable measurement. Canonical analysis was performed to determine the indicator weights. The data from 159 countries were taken for 2018 to assess the index. The result was presented on the map showing countries’ distribution by the information security threat index, thus forming five groups. The group with a “very well” resistance to threats includes economically developed countries with a high level of information security. The “well” group was formed by new industrial and developing countries with economic potential sufficient to prevent information threats and combat their consequences. The information security level in developing countries, where the results of overcoming information threats will affect the economic sphere, is defined as “acceptable”. Countries with a low level of development and information security formed groups designated as “bad” and “very bad”, which indicates a high level of threats to their information security.